Live: India TV C Voter Opinion Poll predicts NDA ahead of UPA, Narendra Modi ahead of rest in PM contenders poll

New Delhi, July 30: The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance may get 156 Lok Sabha seats if elections are held just now, with the ruling Congress-led United Progressive Alliance staying at No. 2 spot with  136
live india tv c voter opinion poll predicts nda...
India TV News Desk July 30, 2013 6:42 IST
New Delhi, July 30: The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance may get 156 Lok Sabha seats if elections are held just now, with the ruling Congress-led United Progressive Alliance staying at No. 2 spot with  136 seats, says the India TV-Times Now-C Voter Opinion Poll telecast at prime time tonight.

The Third Front may get 129 seats followed by the Fourth Front with 122 seats.

The Left Front, Samajwadi Party, RJD, INLD and other regional parties like BJD and TDP have been clubbed in the Third Front, while in the Fourth Front are BSP, AIADMK, YSR Congress and other regional parties.

In the vote share stakes, NDA may get 31 percent, a hike of 6 pc, and the UPA may get 28 per cent (a fall of 9 pc), while the Third Front may get 22 pc and Fourth Front 19 pc of the vote share.

The opinion poll was conducted on the basis of a national representative sample of  13,052 randomly selected respondents across all states during the period July 18 to July 24.

Data have been weighted to known population profile. Margin of error is +/-3 per cent at national level and +/- 5 per cent at regional level.

Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi leads with 37.7 per cent when respondents were asked: who is suited to be the PM of India.  Rahul Gandhi followed with 17.6 pc, Manmohan Singh 6.2 pc, Sonia Gandhi 3.9 pc and Sushma Swaraj 3.2 pc.

In Delhi, BJP may sweep six out of the total seven seats, leaving a single seat for the Congress, predicts the opinion poll, while in Punjab, Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP combine may win 9 out of 13 seats, leaving four for Congress. 

For the 10 Haryana LS seats, Congress may win six, with BJP and Chautala-led Indian National Lok Dal may win two seats each.

In Rajasthan, BJP may win 15 out of a total of 25 seats, leaving nine for Congress and one for 'Others'.

Congress may suffer big reverses in Andhra Pradesh. Out of a total of 42 LS seats, YSR Congress may win 14, Telangana Rashtra Samithi may win 11, Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party may win 9, Congress 7 and 'Others' 1. BJP may not win a single seat in that state.

Scoring on its recent win in Assembly polls, the Congress may win 17 out of 28 LS seats from Karnataka, with the BJP getting eight, and Devegowda's Janata Dal (Secular) getting 3 seats.

Tamil Nadu chief minister Jayalalithaa's AIADMK may win 29 out of a total 39 seats, with the DMK-Congress combine getting only six seats, and 'Others' four seats.

In the southernmost state of Kerala, the Left Front is expected to win 13, the ruling UDF four, and 'Others' 3 out of total number of 20 LS seats.

In the politically significant state of Uttar Pradesh, Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party may lead with 33 out of a total of 80 LS seats, with Mayawati's BSP playing second fiddle with 27 seats.  BJP may win 12, the Congress only five, and Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal may win 3 seats.

The India TV-C Voter opinion poll predicts three seats for Congress and two for BJP out of the total five seats from Uttarakhand.

The LS polls may spring a nasty surprise for Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar. His party Janata Dal (United) may win only 11 out of a total of 40 LS seats, with the BJP winning 14, and Lalu Prasad's RJD getting 12 seats.  Ramvilas Paswan's Lok Jan Shakti Party, Congress, and 'Others' may get one seat each.

The Left Front may come back with a bang in West Bengal, but may still stay behind Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress. The opinion poll projects Trinamool congress getting 22, the Left Front 17, Congress two and Socialist Unity Centre of India one, out of a total tally of 42 LS seats.

In Assam, Congress is expected to win eight out of a total of 14 seats. BJp, Asom Gana Parishad and 'Others' may win two seats each.

In BJP-ruled Madhya Pradesh, Congress will give a tough fight to the BJP. Out of a total of 29 seats, BJP is projected to win 16, Congress 12 and BSP one seat.

In another BJP-ruled state Chhattisgarh, BJP may win seven, and Congress four out of a total of 11 LS seats.

Narendra Modi's home state Gujarat is expected to give a lion's share of 21 out of 26 seats to the BJP, with Congress projected to win in five seats.

In the key state of Maharashtra, the ruling Congress-NCP combine may give a tough fight to the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance.  Out of a total of 48 LS seats, Congress is projected to win 11, NCP 6, Shiv Sena 15 and BJP 11 seats. RPI(Athawale) is expected to win two, and  Raj Thackeray's MNS is projected to win two seats.
BJP and Congress may share a seat each in Goa, presently ruled by BJP.

In the overall tally, BJP, which had won 116 LS seats in 2009, may win 131 seats this time around. Overall, NDA may be gaining 24 more seats than last time, when it won 132 seats. The NDA tally, if polls are held now, comes to 156.

C-Voter has included Samajwadi Party, Left Front, Biju Janata Dal, TDP, RJD, INLD, Asom Gana Parishad, Janata Dal(S), LJP, PDP of Kashmir, MNS, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and other small parties in the "probable Third Front", and its projected tally comes to a total of 122 with the following breakup:

SP                    33
LEFT FRONT        33
BJD                    12
TDP                09
RJD                    12
INLD                02
AGP                02
JDS                    03
LJP                    01
PDP                01
DMDK                01
MNS                03
JMM                03
OTHERS            04

TOTAL                 122

C-Voter has prepared a "probable Fourth Front" meant to include BSP, AIADMK, Trinamool Congress, Janata Dal (United) and YSR Congress. The Fourth Front's projected tally comes to a total of 129 seats, with the following breakup:
AIADMK            29
BSP            28
TMC            22
YSR CONG        14
JDU                11
DMK            05   
DMDK            02
JVM            03
MDMK            01
VCK            01
AUDF            01
BPF                01   
NPF            01
SDF            01
SUCI            01


OTHERS            04

TOTAL-             129

The entire scenario surely predicts a hung Parliament, with no alliance projected to get a majority of 272 seats. In such a fluid state, leaders like Mayawati, Jayalalithaa, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mamata Banerjee may occupy centrestage as "kingmakers" reliving the 1996 experience.
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